Tag Archives: Alan Gin

San Diego County foreclosures filings drop again

Foreclosure filings in San Diego County continued their drop in May, this time by a whopping 21% (year over year), according to Jen Lebron Kuhney of The Daily Transcript.  Kuhney points out that “Foreclosures had been on the rise for three months straight before May.”

1,148 trustee’s deeds were filed, a 16% drop from April, while 1,798 notices of default were also filed, a 24% decline from March, according to Kuhney.  Quoting Alan Gin, professor of economics at USD, “It’s a result more of the same of what we’ve been seeing over the past few months: The housing market is improving.  The economy is improving.  There is less job loss.”

Gin produces the USD’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, and said he is cautious about making future predictions on foreclosures.  Although there have been warnings of a recession double dip, “…Gin said it is possible that wave may not form.”

Concluding, Gin said, “‘We’re seeing a general rebound in terms of the economy…In San Diego we added jobs in hospitality, construction and temporary jobs.  These are the first steps in business picking up again.'”

Glimmer of hope in the SD market?

Roger Showley of the San Diego U-T covered USD’s annual real estate outlook conference last week, with the panel in general agreement that we’re nearing the bottom of the market.

I generally trust what Alan Gin has to say.  I’ve been reading his comments for the last two and a half years, and he doesn’t gloss things over like a lot of people I read.  I do agree with him that the recovery will be an elongated “U” shape (eventually).  We still have a lot of bad assets that need to be shaken out of the current system.  The elongated “U” looks a heck of a lot better than falling off of a cliff did last year.

With that being said, I think I most agree with Alan Brinkman’s comments, the market will hold at the low end, but the high end above $700k will continue to fall.