Possible Thaw in the Jumbo Market?

If you are a realtor and/of a loan officer in San Diego County, a must read Monday through Friday is The Daily Transcript, our daily business newspaper since 1886.  One of the most valuable tools in he paper is the section showing all residential and commercial sales, usually 10-20 days from the present date.

A few weeks ago, I start noticing something I hadn’t seen in about 18 months, a number of homes over $1.5 million in La Jolla started to move in higher numbers.  For the last 18 months or so, the vast majority of properties in La Jolla that were moving were condos, and ones on the “lower” end.  I thought that it might be some fluke, but that I read in the Transcript an article that JP Morgan Chase and Citi were expanding the number of jumbo loans they were funding.  Then on July 10, Andrew at Blownmortgage.com penned an article, “Will Jumbo Loan Refinancing Stage a Comeback?”.

We actually have two markets in San Diego, the “jumbo” and “conforming” .  A conforming loan is $417,000 or less, and that market has a 2.2 month inventory.  In a normal market, it would be 6 months.  The low end has been snatched up quickly over the last six months, but the “jumbo” market is top heavy, with a very large inventory.  Up until recently, it had been almost completely frozen.  I’m still skeptical of improvement, especially since there are a high number of jumbo ARMs that are resetting this year, but there does seem to be a tiny stream of light shining on the jumbo market right now.  Whether this is a blip or the beginning of a trend, time will have to tell.


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